Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 24.124135 26.549855 29.284869 32.635288 36.683830 41.493192 47.759221
2025-02-09 20.799657 23.967718 27.846062 33.083769 40.217834 50.022269 65.433374
2025-02-16 18.492102 22.007310 26.574882 33.226940 43.244927 59.012278 89.335874
2025-02-23 16.658558 20.283127 25.200621 32.786059 45.182707 67.204110 119.400738
2025-03-02 15.407223 19.120333 24.346260 32.828128 47.792537 77.874335 169.610967
2025-03-09 14.336132 18.054427 23.440244 32.549440 49.704061 88.378574 244.922357
2025-03-16 13.438508 17.127389 22.598553 32.180735 51.297972 99.398209 372.695306
2025-03-23 12.690920 16.340588 21.865378 31.844942 52.840772 111.759626 635.658169
2025-03-30 12.077300 15.695083 21.275003 31.649461 54.630251 126.951220 1439.843756
2025-04-06 11.441354 14.963934 20.468172 30.913403 54.939069 137.676170 4438.499458
2025-04-13 11.263293 14.918764 20.781329 32.382210 61.299004 184.639152 NaN
2025-04-20 10.812547 14.410952 20.256890 32.072894 62.805530 211.792635 NaN
2025-04-27 10.457687 14.038864 19.945192 32.188205 65.740773 259.587096 NaN
2025-05-04 10.160787 13.740746 19.737045 32.498420 69.514321 335.850735 NaN
2025-05-11 9.858035 13.413576 19.447213 32.582134 72.661925 435.796879 NaN
2025-05-18 9.511768 12.994733 18.956297 32.132262 73.765912 527.500391 NaN
2025-05-25 9.252623 12.706617 18.684901 32.162927 76.808298 731.548683 NaN
2025-06-01 8.976908 12.376110 18.309172 31.889389 78.571672 992.119309 NaN
2025-06-08 8.711300 12.049941 17.919385 31.531319 79.887302 1381.659777 NaN
2025-06-15 8.467450 11.749770 17.560001 31.206034 81.282279 2109.578794 NaN
2025-06-22 8.254201 11.492592 17.267393 31.016760 83.318199 4178.521725 NaN
2025-06-29 7.999115 11.153140 16.794851 30.304931 82.495309 6283.562248 NaN
2025-07-06 7.975184 11.212221 17.108714 31.724673 93.887621 NaN NaN